Raw projections from last season’s goals — published before the odds lock. The bands are wide on purpose.
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Before a puck drops, the model plays the coming season 100,000 times per conference and records where each club finished. The bar is the middle eighty per cent of those seasons — a tenth of the time a club beat the right-hand end, a tenth of the time it fell short of the left — and the bright mark is the median. A wide bar is not a weak club; it is what 84 games of hockey does to any club.
| TEAM | LOW | MEDIAN | HIGH | RANGE (55–135 PTS) | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 122 | 132 | 99.9 | ||
| 100 | 111 | 121 | 94.8 | ||
| 99 | 110 | 120 | 94.3 | ||
| 99 | 110 | 120 | 98.7 | ||
| 97 | 108 | 118 | 88.8 | ||
| 93 | 104 | 114 | 75.7 | ||
| 93 | 104 | 114 | 93.8 | ||
| 92 | 103 | 113 | 92.2 | ||
| 91 | 102 | 113 | 70.3 | ||
| 90 | 101 | 112 | 65.0 | ||
| 90 | 101 | 112 | 70.6 | ||
| 89 | 100 | 111 | 64.9 | ||
| 88 | 99 | 110 | 88.2 | ||
| 87 | 98 | 109 | 85.6 | ||
| 86 | 97 | 107 | 49.0 | ||
| 84 | 94 | 105 | 37.6 | ||
| 81 | 92 | 103 | 26.7 | ||
| 80 | 91 | 102 | 22.2 | ||
| 80 | 91 | 101 | 56.2 | ||
| 79 | 90 | 100 | 15.0 | ||
| 77 | 88 | 98 | 10.3 | ||
| 77 | 88 | 99 | 40.6 | ||
| 77 | 88 | 99 | 34.9 | ||
| 76 | 87 | 98 | 11.8 | ||
| 76 | 86 | 97 | 27.7 | ||
| 75 | 86 | 97 | 23.5 | ||
| 73 | 84 | 94 | 22.2 | ||
| 73 | 83 | 94 | 21.5 | ||
| 71 | 82 | 93 | 3.1 | ||
| 69 | 80 | 91 | 11.5 | ||
| 65 | 76 | 87 | 3.1 | ||
| 57 | 68 | 78 | 0.5 |
Bands come from 100,000 simulated seasons per conference, seeded from last season’s goals for and against and played over the coming season’s 84 games. Each club’s games are drawn independently at its own rate, so strength of schedule is not reflected — a club in a weak division gets no credit for one. No summer signing is priced in: a roster move is not a rating change until there are games to re-rate it against. These lines locked on September 18 and have not been rebuilt since.
Ranked by how far each club’s playoff odds sit from 50% — the clubs whose season is genuinely undecided, not the ones with the widest bar. Bar width would rank nobody: across all 32 clubs it runs 20 to 22 points, because over 84 games the spread is set by the number of games far more than by the club playing them.
How the model works →Every club’s goals for and against last season, from the public standings. Nothing licensed, nothing scraped, nothing guessed — and no summer signing priced in.
A full 2027–28 season for every club, simulated 100,000 times from those goal totals. The fixture list isn’t used: with no games played, there is nothing yet to say one opponent should be weighted differently from another. Every number on this page is a count, not an opinion.
All 32 published in public, timestamped. Screenshot the ones you disagree with — receipts are the whole point.
The board froze on Sep 18. Nothing above it moves again this season — what’s published is what the model said before a puck dropped, and the season gets to argue back from here.
Read the methodology →